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economist. we're talking extraordinary weakness here, especially in the two most important economies, germany and france. >> yes. what we saw towards the beginning of the year, what we were hoping was we would see in the u.s. in the second quarter and maybe a third number. what these number res sharing, while we're seeing the rate of contraction to ease in the third quarter, around 4.6% declines. what we saw at the end of the quarter, regathering momentum and that puts the usa in a weak position heading into the second quarter. >> i was going to ask, too, the there's any way, these are sentiment surveys. these are not going on out and measuring production. what it does, it oles the companies themselves, asks them about data. pretty reliable whether it's the u.s. version of these or the global ones with tracking equity prices. and the point here is, this is the first reading of sentiment in march. yet it doesn't seem as though this was necessarily nud by the latest out of cypress. this would have all fallen before this happened. >> yeah. it's asking for hard information whether it is
to give the state all of our resources which would be at least 3 billion euros to help the economy. maybe a little bit of help from heaven. back over to you. >> the archbishop, this is something people should go look up this piece of the story. this is a fascinating piece. he's seen as this spiritual leader there who has been quite vocal. he's been out there talking saying let's get out of the euro and go back to the pound. do we have carolyn? can i briefly ask what it's like on the ground there? we understand that it may be several more days, not just thursday, before people can access their money in cyprus. >> absolutely. initially we know that banks were going to be closed up until tomorrow but at this point there's a lot of speculation that banks will be closed up until tuesday because monday is another bank holiday and at this point it's very, very uncertain that we'll get a viable plan b to get the bailout deal in place at this point it doesn't look like we'll get it by tomorrow. at this point we are expecting that banks are going to be closed for a little bit longer. of course that
times the size of its economy without having some kind of bail structure in a solution, it becomes very difficult. and i think that understanding is quite clear among investors. so from a longer term perspective, i think there's a positive element here which is a more substantial bailin in this solution. >> valentin, what kind of exposure do you have in europe at this point and what changes have you made in regard to how the cypriot levy is handled? >> it is creating a bit of uncertainty. clearly, it comes from lingering uncertainty over the political situation in italy. so all in all, it makes the bit more cautious on europe. not so much on our overall willingness to take risks. we're still overweight global real estate, but we have still put down our exposure in europe, so we are now under weight european equities. we are cautious on peripheral bull markets and european fixed income space. so that is the main changes. still on the regional allocation that we have, but not so much altering our overall willingness to look for risk. i think in general, the broadening of the global cycle
and that will lead to a decline in the money that is slowing around the economy and that means lower output essentially. so what we're looking at here in cyprus is that the retracted recession is not depression. let's continue with the discussion with professor pisteritus. thank you so much for joining us this morning. just how do you read the deal? did the germans win in the end? >> well, i would have to agree with you that what the germans wanted has happened in the end. it's an incredibly bad deal for the eurozone. cyprus is table because you are taking away from the island more than half its gdp. you're destroying small enterprises and the sector which accounted for 45% of gdp. expect unemployment to shoot up. we are not sure what the next step in this model is going to to be, but what has even wider implications is that the for the first time within the eurozone, depositors had to bail out ailing banks. and that happened in the 1930s. there were bank runs. we introduced deposit insurance. we introduced polling schemes for risk. in europe, we are headed for a banking union next year so
good performance of the german economy throughout the year. actually, we are forecasting a growth from around 2% quarter on quarter. and this is on the back of very strong labor markets. >> 2% growth in which quarter? >> basically on average. >> over the year. >> no. for the full year, i would have 11%. but quarter on quarter, up around 2%. why is that? very strong labor market, very strong export. i think more importantly, we should look at next month's bmis. the u.s. data came very strong. we should see a strong performance in germany on the back of the exports. >> you could make that argument on the pmi in germany and it was surprisingly weak. a deep contraction in the fourth quarter was going to rebound now called into question. >> i think this will be the growth. but you've seen in the labor market, you've seen hard data, actually, a strong performance of the economy. so we -- i think we should not expect a continuous increasing pmi, a continuous increase in ifo business index. i think the big question is the next one, in my opinion, just what they said, the u.s. bring very strong
tightening the money market and the liquidities condition in the economy and where we flexed in the capital markets these days. >> great point. raymond yung joining us. thanks very much. a reminder again that what we're seeing in markets today isn't just about cyprus. it could potentially be that seasonal time of year once again where global sitters come to the fore. >>> straight ahead, find out why our next guest says the bank robbery is nothing more than legalized robbery. ery. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. there. i said it. they don't have pictures of my kids. they don't have my yoga mat. and still, i feel at home. could it be the flat screen tv? the not so mini fridge? ♪ the different free dinner almost every weeknight? or maybe, it's all of the above. and all the rest. am i home? nope. but it almost feels that way. homewood suites by hilton. be at home. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." stocks falling around the globe with european banks deeply in the red as the cyprus bailout and co
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6

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